Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, who is currently Maelstrom’s chief investment officer, has modified his prediction that the cryptocurrency market will peak in March 2025.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, who is currently Maelstrom’s chief investment officer, has modified his prediction that the cryptocurrency market will peak in March 2025. Hayes had first predicted that when Donald Trump’s government entered office, the market would see a major decline, or a “Trump dump.” He expected investors to quickly recognize that the next president’s pro-crypto pledges, such as his intention to build a Bitcoin reserve and foster an environment that is conducive to cryptocurrency, would prove challenging to carry out in the near future.
But Hayes now thinks the anticipated “Trump dump” has already happened. According to him, the market correction most likely occurred between the middle of December and the year’s end. Hayes contends that the market will continue to rise due to the U.S. economy’s sustained liquidity. Early in January, Bitcoin’s price had already risen by 5.5%, and its market value had risen by more than 10% to $2 trillion.
The surge of dollar liquidity anticipated in the first quarter of 2025 is the main driver of Hayes’ updated forecast. He projects that by the end of March, the financial sector might receive up to $612 billion in stimulus funds from the U.S. Treasury’s expenditures and a reduction in the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility. This liquidity could counteract any potential disappointment with Trump’s crypto plans and support more upward momentum in the market.
In the near future, Hayes thinks Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets will continue to do well. At his family business, Maelstrom, he counsels investors to take on greater risk by suggesting that they embrace a “degen” strategy and put their money into tokens related to decentralized science (DeSci).
Hayes cautions that there are still possible hazards for the remainder of 2025, despite his continued optimism about the short-term prospects for the cryptocurrency business. These include discussions about debt ceilings, tax due dates, and potential shifts in monetary policy by the Bank of China or Japan. Hayes, however, is adamant that the market will continue to rise until March 2025 due to the favorable liquidity condition.
Experts estimate that later in the year, Bitcoin may be worth between $150,000 and $250,000. As the year progresses, Hayes advises risk-takers to remain vigilant about market conditions while making audacious investing choices.
FAQ
Arthur Hayes bases his prediction on a significant surge in dollar liquidity anticipated in the first quarter of 2025. He forecasts that the U.S. Treasury’s expenditures and the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility could inject up to $612 billion into the financial system, driving the crypto market upward
The “Trump dump” refers to Hayes’ initial expectation that the cryptocurrency market would experience a significant decline upon Donald Trump’s return to power due to challenges in fulfilling pro-crypto promises. However, Hayes now believes this market correction occurred between December 2024 and early 2025.
Hayes is optimistic about decentralized science (DeSci) tokens and recommends investors adopt a higher-risk strategy by investing in this emerging sector, which he believes offers significant potential for growth.
Despite his optimism, Hayes highlights several risks for 2025, including U.S. debt ceiling discussions, tax deadlines, and potential monetary policy changes by the Bank of China or Japan. These factors could influence market dynamics later in the year.
Experts, including Hayes, estimate that Bitcoin could reach a value between $150,000 and $250,000 by the end of 2025, depending on market conditions and sustained liquidity.
